Archive for February 2017

Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up for the 12th straight time. This was the Dow’s best performance since a streak that ended 1/14/87, and came within two days of the record 14-day winning streak back in 1897, yes 1897, the second year of the Dow’s existence. During the streak, which ended today, the…

Last month existing home sales absolutely sizzled, hitting a rate of 5.69 million/year, the best level since 2/07. Remarkably, this strength came despite inventory of only 1.69 million units. That’s just 3.6 months of supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level seen this century! Moreover, inventory has fallen year-over-year for 20 straight months.…

The Friday File: The first known game of blindfold chess took place in the 13th century when Buzecca played two games simultaneously. In the 18th century, Andre Phildor played three opponents at once. In the 20th century, blindfold chess took off. In 1947, Argentine Miguel Najdorf played 45 games at once, in 2011 German Marc…

Until recently, the combination of a shortage of multifamily units, booming demographic demand from Millennials, and an improving economy meant strong demand for apartments. This resulted in strong rental growth and large increases in supply. But, things are reversing. The largest cohort of Millennials is almost 26, job growth is slowing, years of new supply…

10-year Treasury yields are up for many reasons including a subtle shift in Fed policy. The average maturity of the Fed’s huge Treasury portfolio has declined from 7.5 years in 13Q4 to six. This reinvestment strategy raises long rates by reducing long-bond demand. Moreover, maturing Treasuries held by the Fed balloon to $423 billion next…

While French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, whose platform includes pulling France out of the EU, is expected to win the first round of the French presidential elections on April 23rd with up to 27% of the popular vote, in the second round where only the top two vote getters compete, her chances of victory…

Total household debt increased by $226 billion in 16Q4, and is just $99 billion below the peak of $12.7 trillion set in 08Q3. However, household debt is now just 67% of GDP, down from 85% at the peak. Moreover, back in 2008 housing-secured debt accounted for 79% of household liabilities, today it’s just 71%. Lastly,…

The Friday File: Michael Flynn’s career as White House national security advisor lasted a record-short 24 days. The shortest tenure in that post had previously been held by William Jackson, who served in the Eisenhower White House for 129 days, followed by Richard Allen, Reagan’s first of six such advisors, who lasted 348 days. The…

In 2015, the world’s most research-intensive nation was Israel, which invested 4.25% of GDP in research and development. Second was South Korea at 4.23%, up dramatically from 2.2% in 2000, but which has held spending flat since 2012. The US followed at 2.8%. China was fourth and quickly rising at 2.07%, with plans to reach…