Archive for August 2016

From 1968-1990, the marriage rate steadily declined from about 82% to 67% for all women regardless of education. Since 1990, rates have diverged. For women with a professional degree/Ph.D., the rate is 80% and rising while for women with a Bachelor’s, it’s 75% and also rising. For women with an Associate’s, it’s 65%, for women…

In a recent poll of all 45 living former members of the White House Council of Economic Advisers going back to Richard Nixon, among the 22 Democrats, 14 support Clinton, none oppose her, 7 have no opinion and 1 did not respond. Among the 23 Republicans, none support Trump, 6 oppose him, 11 have no…

The FY 2016 budget deficit, which ends next month, will rise to $590 billion, or 3.2% of GDP, up from $438 billion or 2.5% of GDP in FY2015, the lowest level since 2007. The deficit is up because revenues will rise by just $26 billion while spending will increase by $178 billion due to Social…

The Friday File: Using a combination of variables including sales of food, drink, lodging and for the unlucky, medical care, economists estimate that the 2,500 global locations with high-quality waves sought out by surfers generate about $20 million/year each or $50 billion/year collectively. When a new spot is found, local economic growth can rise by…

While single-family starts are up 11% YTD and single-family permits are up 7.2% YTD, multifamily starts are down 1% and multifamily permits are down 17%, suggesting multifamily activity has peaked. Separately, new home sales are strengthening. The 727,000 seasonally-adjusted annual sales in July were the best since 10/07! Maybe it’s because new home price growth…

Obamacare healthcare exchanges suffer from mispriced insurance. The law requires insurance for the elderly be no more than three times as costly as insurance for the young. But, the elderly consume way more healthcare than the young. This mispricing discourages the young, who subsidize the elderly, from enrolling, but encourages the elderly, who are getting…

To improve employment outcomes, many states are prohibiting employers from inquiring about the criminal histories of job applicants prior to job offers. While well intended, the unintended consequence of this is that the probability of being employed fell 5.1% for young low-skilled African-American men and by 2.6% for similar Hispanic men. More information is better…

In 16Q2, 12.1% of homes with a mortgage were underwater, down from 14.4% a year ago and down from the negative equity peak of an astonishing 31.4% in 12Q1. On average, 19.4% of homes valued in the bottom third of all homes are underwater, 10.6% in the middle third are, and only 7.5% of homes…

The Friday File: While Olympic gold medal winners receive $25,000, silver medalists $15,000 and bronze winners $10,000, courtesy of the US Olympic Committee, they pay income tax on those winnings. Now our braindead Congress wants to make those awards tax free! This is a perfect example of what’s wrong with our tax code. There’s no…