Archive for July 2016

The Friday File: Dutch men, at almost 6’ and Latvian women at 5’7” are the tallest in the world. Men from Timor-Leste, at 5’3” and Guatemalan women, at 4’11” are the shortest. American men at 5’10” are 37th tallest, while American women at 5’4” are 42nd tallest. Over the last 100 years, South Korean women…

Yesterday’s Fed statement suggesting that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished” that “job gains were strong” and “household spending has been growing strongly” indicates a Fed that’s again taking steps to prepare the market for a rate rise, probably in December. But, if July and August employment and inflation numbers are strong, a…

After peaking at $70.7 billion in 9/14, new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft (core capital goods), have been steadily falling and were just $62.3 billion in 6/16. They are down 3.7% Y-o-Y; 3.8% YTD. New orders for all durable goods (a broader measure), fell 4% in 6/16, the biggest decline since 8/14. Businesses…

While existing home sales in June were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million, their highest level since 2/07, sales remain 22% off the peak of mid-2005. A key reason; a low inventory that essentially hasn’t budged since late 2011. And why might that be? A rise in the number of renter-occupied single-family homes…

While most nations are struggling mightily with how to boost inflation from microscopic levels, Venezuela has more than enough. This year, Venezuelan inflation is expected to reach 500%, and in 2017, a terrifying 1,650%. Declining oil prices alone hurt, but gross economic and financial mismanagement are primarily to blame. GDP is expected to decline 8%…

The Friday File: The number of foreign adoptions by Americans fell by 12% in 2015 to 5,648, down from 6,438 in 2014 and a peak of 22,884 in 2004, from which the number has steadily declined. In 2015, the number of adoptions was the lowest total since 1981. China remains the most popular source nation…

For the year ending 6/16, the budget deficit totaled $523 billion, up 20.6% from a year earlier. As a percentage of GDP, it’s 2.9%, the highest level since 3/15. Revenues grew 2% in the last 12 months, spending grew 4.3%. Nominal GDP growth during this time was also about 2.9%, so the debt/GDP ratio did…

With global growth slowing and inflation benign, easy monetary policy is here for longer. Of the 25 largest central banks, only two have recently raised rates; the Fed and the Federal Reserve Bank of Mexico. Twelve are expected to ease, including large bellwether central banks like the ECB, People’s Bank of China, Bank of Japan…

The labor force participation rate has fallen substantially for workers with, at most, a high school degree. This fall in the supply of low-skilled workers should raise wages. Yet, their wages have fallen 25% compared to workers with a college degree. This means the demand for unskilled workers has fallen by more than the supply.…

The first post-Brexit US economic data point came out Friday, and it showed that consumer sentiment declined from 93.5 in June to 89.5 during the first 10 days of July; hardly surprising. Record numbers of households mentioned Brexit, including nearly one-in-four households in the top third of the income distribution. Given the rapid rebound in…