Archive for June 2016

Wealth of Americans hit a new high of $88.1 trillion in 16Q1, up from $87.2 trillion in 15Q4. The rise was driven primarily by an increase in residential real estate of $498 billion; equity prices declined $160 billion. Net worth bottomed at $54.6 trillion in 09Q1. Home equity as a percent of real estate is…

Retail sales grew a healthy seasonally adjusted 0.5% in May, on the heels of a 1.3% surge in April. In addition, import prices in May rose by the most in two years and export prices rose by the most in five. And while the preliminary June reading of consumer confidence slipped ever so slightly, the…

While the 38,000 net jobs created in May was lousy news, a July rate rise is still possible if the June employment number is good, there are upward revisions to prior months and the UK doesn’t exit the EU. Moreover, the economy needs to produce only 80,000 jobs/month, down from over 200,000 jobs/month not that…

The chance of a recession over the next year is 25%, which is low, although double the rock-bottom rate it was last summer. The most likely cause, a slowdown in debt-laden China, followed by weak corporate revenues and declining earnings causing cutbacks in capital spending and hiring. Third is political risk, and last is that…

The Friday File: While US hotel bookings were flat in 16Q1 compared to 15Q1, at Trump Hotels booking were down. The steepest decline, at the Trump Soho NY where bookings were down 74%, followed by the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, where booking were off 71%. In Toronto, booking were down 47%, in Chicago 31%…

In 2015, intra-city transit ridership declined for the first time in five years as cheap gas pushed Americans into cars. Total ridership fell 1.3% from 2014, the highest annual level since 1958. Of the 10.6 billion trips taken, the number of bus rides fell by 150 million or 2.8%, while subway, train and light rail…

While labor productivity growth has been dismal since 2011, so has wage growth. But if wages start to increase more rapidly, that would push up costs and prices, and that would stoke inflation and push the Fed to raise rates more quickly. This is why the Fed is looking to raise rates in July. But…

On 7/1/15, the US population was 321.4 million, up from 308.8 million in 2010, a 5-year rise of 4.1% and the slowest growth rate since the Depression. ND grew fastest at 12.5%, followed by DC at 11.7%, TX at 9.2%, and UT at 8.4%. Conversely, PR shrunk by 6.5%, WV shrunk by 0.5% and VT’s…

With just 38,000 net new jobs created in May and downward revisions totaling 59,000 to March and April, last Friday’s jobs report was lousy! That said, while recent economic data haven’t been spectacular, they aren’t that bad and weekly jobless claims remain low. This is probably a one-off event. My bet, the Fed won’t raise…

The Friday File: During the just completed 2015-16 season, Broadway attendance hit 13.3 million, up from 13.1 million the year before. While the average ticket price fell from $104.18 to $103.11, revenues rose 0.6% to $1.37 billion. The Lion King, the top grossing show since 2013, averages $151.67/ticket, while Hamilton averages $164.09/ticket. Hamilton plays in…