Archive for January 2015

The Fed paid banks $7 billion in interest on $3 trillion in excess reserves parked at the Fed. The primary way the Fed will raise short-term rates is by increasing the rate they pay banks on those reserves. Thus in 2015 interest payments may double. Luckily, the Fed can afford it; they returned a record…

While the unemployment rate has fallen dramatically from 10% in 10/09 to 5.6% today, the number of persons employed is barely 2 million higher than it was before the Great Recession began in January 2008. It’s because the labor force participation rate has plummeted. Turns out the largest percentage declines in the LFPR are among…

While oil prices here are down 56% since 7/1/14, the picture is vastly different elsewhere because oil is quoted in US dollars. Because the Canadian dollar has fallen vs. the US dollar, when converted into Canadian currency the decline has been less severe at just 49%, while in Russia, oil prices in Rubles are unchanged.…

With Syriza winning Greek elections yesterday, expect increased market volatility. Syriza wants to end austerity and renegotiate its €240 billion bailout, which Germany firmly opposes. To scare Greece, Merkel suggests that Greece leaving the euro would be OK, but it’s not. To avoid that, compromise will be required. Regrettably Syriza’s leaders are inexperienced and Greece…

The Friday File: The wealthiest 80 people on the planet have a combined worth of $1.9 trillion, the same as the total wealth of the bottom half of the world’s population; 3.5 billion people. The wealthiest 1% of the population, 70 million people, hold 48% of global wealth and average $1.8 million/person. Bill Gates is…

Over the last year jet fuel prices fell 23.5% but fares only declined 4.7%! It’s because fuel is 26% of the cost of a ticket, and airlines hedge their fuel needs to guarantee price stability which prevents them from realizing savings when prices fall. Also, when energy prices have historically surged, fares have generally risen…

Real median household income in the USA in 2013 was $51,939, up a microscopic $181 from 2012. Moreover, it’s back to the level first achieved in 1989! As a result the expected average household savings of $750 on gasoline in 2015 (down to $1,762) is huge! The savings are three times as large as the…

Job quality is finally improving. Last year, industries that paid more than the average private wage of $24.57 accounted for 66% of all jobs created. Business services at $29.27/hour created 26% of all new jobs followed by goods-producing at $25.81/hour which created 18% of new jobs while education and health at $24.89/hour created 17%. Finance…

The sudden decision by the Swiss National Bank to allow the Franc to freely float against the euro not only destroyed the SNB’s credibility, resulted in huge losses on its euro-bloated balance sheet and unleashed deflation in Switzerland, but also led to the insolvency of a number of foreign-exchange brokers. Despite extensive regulatory efforts to…