Archive for December 2014

In 2014, the yield curve flattened considerably as long-term interest rates, like the ten–year Treasury bond, fell by about three-quarters-of-one-percentage point while short-term rates were completely unchanged. In 2015, I expect the yield curve to flatten further, but now it will be short-term rates that rise as the Fed pushes them up, while long-term rates…

Helmetless motorcyclists admitted to a hospital following an accident typically run up medical bills of greater than a million dollars, and taxpayers pay well over half the tab. The solution: where helmets are not required, force un-helmeted bikers to carry $1,000,000 in medical-payment insurance coverage. While the insurance might be expensive, that’s the whole point!…

Inflation, as measured by the Christmas Price Index, based on purchasing all 12 items in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” rose 1% in 2014 and now stands at $27,673. The most expensive item: seven swans-a-swimming at $7,000. Six geese-a-laying rose 71.4% and now cost $360. In a good sign for housing, pear trees, the home…

The Saudis export seven million bbl/day of oil, and their budget is balanced at $106/bbl. At $60/bbl, Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is $118 billion/year: 12.7% of GDP! Saudi Arabia has foreign reserves of $750 billion to help withstand this. But at $60/bbl, the Saudis will consume 16% of their reserves/annum. The Saudis have till 2018…

The Friday File: 21% of Americans have at least one tattoo, up from 15% during the middle of the last decade. 26% of persons in the West have one, compared to 21% in the East and Midwest, and just 18% in the South. 23% of women and 19% of men have a tattoo; however, among…

Between 2002 and 2012, real median incomes of the 16% of US households headed by someone without a high school diploma fell at an average annual rate of 2.4%. Among the 51% of households with a high school diploma but without a college diploma median income fell at an average annual rate of 1%. This…

In her press conference today, Fed Chairwoman Yellen clearly provided the Fed with more flexibility regarding interest rates. With GDP growth firming, unemployment falling and inflation benign, Yellen is hinting at maybe earlier but probably incrementally smaller rate hikes. And she has largely said that the Russian currency collapse and the bear market in oil…