Archive for October 2014

The Friday File: Halloween is the 4th biggest annual retail event, with total spending expected to total $7.4 billion (more than the GDP of Barbados), behind Christmas at $620 billion, back to school/college at $73 billion and Mother’s Day at $20 billion. Americans will spend $350 million on costumes for 23 million pets, $2.2 billion…

Oil’s price decline is due to relentless increases in supply and slightly declining demand due to weakening global growth. It’s also because Saudi Arabia hasn’t cut production. That’s because the Saudi’s are squeezing their enemies, Iran, Iraq and Russia which all heavily depend on oil revenues. They’re also hoping to reduce US output. The big…

The ECB’s stress test of the largest Eurozone banks found that 25 of 150 failed. Hardly inspiring. Moreover, there’s no indication any of these banks will soon boost lending. That said, if these results raise confidence enough to begin to pave the way for a single Eurozone banking union where banks are judged on their…

Tomorrow the Fed will announce that tapering has ended, closing the books on QE3 which began in late 2012. Therefore, the carefully scrutinized policy statement they release will change. However, it will still include the phrase “…maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time…” Altering the phrase “considerable time”…

The FY2014 federal budget deficit fell 29% to $483.35 billion or 2.8% of GDP, the lowest percentage since FY2007. Revenues rose 9% to $3.021 trillion, due to higher incomes and higher tax rates that went into effect 1/1/13. Outlays rose 1% to $3.504 trillion. While good news, don’t celebrate. We have a five year window…

The Friday File: One of only three undefeated college football teams, what separates the #1 ranked Mississippi Bulldogs from other top programs is school spending on football totals just $15.3 million/year. Alabama spends the most; $41.6 million/year, with $11.8 million for coaches’ salaries alone! Auburn is next at $36.8, followed by Notre Dame at $32.4.…

Should the Republicans regain the Senate (which seems likely), expect them to reverse the Democrats’ rule enabling confirmation of cabinet appointees and most judges from a simple majority back to a super majority of 60 votes. With a simple majority, President Obama would only need to get one or two Republican senators, with a supermajority,…

The unemployment rate declines when an economy grows faster than its potential. This usually happens coming out of recessions when an economy makes up for economic growth that didn’t occur during the recession. The problem is, while the unemployment rate is falling nicely, it’s occurring with GDP growth of just 2.25%/year, suggesting that potential GDP…

Last week, first-time claims for unemployment fell to their lowest level since May 2000 and population-adjusted, you have to go back to the week of May 17th 1969 to get a lower number! In addition, industrial production jumped one percent, the largest gain in two years, and consumer sentiment hit a post-recession high. The problems…

While housing starts were up 6.3% in September compared to August, the increase was led by an 18.5% rise in multifamily and a 1.1% rise in single-family. YTD single-family starts are up just 4%; multifamily are up 23%! Single-family permits now stand at 624,000 seasonally-adjusted, essentially unchanged from where they were in 2/13, when they…