Archive for August 2014
Terrific Ties
The Friday File: Yesterday was National Bow-Tie Day. Bow–ties were probably first worn by Croatian mercenaries and brought to Western Europe by French soldiers following the 30 Years War (1618-1648). This year about $850 million will be spent purchasing neckware with 7% of that total, $59.5 million, going to bow-ties. In the southeast, bow-ties are…
Read MoreWinning Wheat
In the complex fighting between Russia and Ukraine (R&U), there are unambiguous winners. Wheat is at its highest price in three weeks on fears that R&U, which collectively account for 20% of global wheat exports, may fail to get the harvested wheat on ships for export. Similarly, U.S. crude oil for October delivery is at…
Read MoreGross Growth
In 2013, ND had the largest rise in Gross State Product; a staggering 9.7% followed by WY at 7.8%, WV at 5.1%, OK at 4.2% and ID at 4.1%. All but ID are energy-rich states. The worst performing state, AK which contracted by 2.5%, followed by DC which shrank by 0.5%, MD which had no…
Read MoreTerrific Trend
The economic data released today were terrific. Two house price indices showed decelerating price appreciation which helps affordability. Consumer confidence is now as high as it was in 10/07 just before the Great Recession and manufacturing activity from MD through SC is at a 3.5 year high. Durable goods orders were revised up for June…
Read MoreHoly Housing
From 1/1/14 through 7/31/14 new home sales totaled 266,000, down from 268,000 during the same period in 2013. Similarly, single-family starts are up just 3.2% year-to-date and single-family permits are up just 0.8% year-to-date. Single-family activity is, in part, so lackluster because the average new house price hit a new record high of $339,100 last…
Read MoreNew Construction Update: How Job Growth, Population Growth and Different Generations Play into Today’s Market
An article by Nichole DeMario and James McClister featuring Elliot Eisenburg posted on Chicago Agent Magazine.Read New Construction Update: How Job Growth, Population Growth and Different Generations Play into Today’s Market at chicagoagentmagazine.com.
Read MorePolitical Probabilities
The Friday File: The last time the Republicans won the White House without the name Nixon or Bush appearing on the ticket was in 1928, 86 years ago, when Herbert Hoover won with Charles Curtis as his Vice President. For this reason I strongly suggest that Florida ex-governor Jeb Bush seriously consider selecting Missouri governor…
Read MoreSeasonal Selling
Housing sales peak in spring/summer, with price gains doing so as well. However, distressed sales, of which there have been many, occur relatively evenly all year. Therefore, distressed sales are highest as a percentage of all sales in fall/winter, thereby dragging down house prices and amplifying normal seasonal patterns. Distressed sales are now declining, but…
Read MoreLower Level
Since 1947 real GDP growth has averaged 3.26%/year. Since 1/1/10 it’s averaged 2.3%. Economists think that some of the decline will persist for a while because of both slower productivity gains and population growth. Therefore, the neutral Federal Funds rate, the rate that’s neither expansionary nor contractionary and the rate the Fed wants to ultimately…
Read MoreRotten Rates
While 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield just 2.4%, yields on 10-year German government bonds are a ridiculously low 1%, and 10-year Japanese government bonds yield a microscopic 0.507%. Yields this low tell us markets think GDP growth will remain anemic in the industrialized world for a while longer. Contrary to the naysayers, easy monetary policy won’t…
Read More