Archive for January 2014
Touchdown Totals
Touchdown Totals The NFL has revenues of $10 billion/year, more than any other sports league and its revenues are almost as big as the GDP of The Bahamas. Over the next decade, the NFL plans to increase its revenues to $27 billion/year which would put it on par with the nation of Nicaragua and would…
Read MoreNattering Nabobs
While naysayers dismissed today’s 3.2% Q4 annualized GDP growth number because 0.42% of it was from a rise in inventories, excluding them Q4 GDP was 2.8% while Q3 GDP was just 2.5%! Moreover, a drastic decline in federal government defense spending along with the government closure clipped 0.98% from Q4 GDP growth while residential construction,…
Read MoreDriving Behavior
Six years after the start of the Great Recession, the total number of vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) is still 2.27% below the pre-recession high. Moreover, per capita VMTs are down a whopping 7.82% since peaking in June 2005. In the last recession, VMTs did not decline while in the 1990 recession they recovered in just…
Read MoreMagic Money
While the Fed balance sheet recently crossed $4 trillion, the amount that’s in Treasury securities is $2.23 trillion while the amount in mortgage backed securities is $1.53 trillion, for a total of $3.76 trillion, with the remaining $290 billion in odds and ends. The Fed balance sheet will grow by another $405 billion before tapering…
Read MoreFewer Fed Funds
Despite the weak December jobs report, the Fed will announce later this week that it’s reducing its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities by another $10 billion to $65 billion/month, down from $75 billion/month in mid-December. Manufacturing continues to improve, Q4 GDP will be 3.3% or better which is good, net exports are…
Read MoreMinting Millionaires
The Friday File: While Maryland remains the state with the highest percentage of millionaire households (MH) at 7.7%, it’s followed closely by New Jersey, Connecticut, Hawaii and more distantly by Alaska. During 2012, North Dakota experienced the greatest percentage increase in MHs from 4.06% to 4.59%. The next four states minting the highest percentage of…
Read MoreInflating Inflation
With short-term interest rates near zero and inflation very mild, real short-term interest rates (nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate) are slightly negative. To boost investment spending and the economy, the Fed should push real interest rates further into negative territory. Thus, rather than promising to keep interest where they are until unemployment falls…
Read MoreHousing Hoedown
After rising by 28% in 2012 and 18% in 2013, the 923,000 housing starts in 2013 were the sixth lowest amount since record keeping began in 1959, with only the prior five years being worse. As for single-family starts, despite having risen by 24% in 2012 and 15% in 2013, they came in at 618,000,…
Read MorePessimistic Possibility
While the economic news of late is pretty good, if you must worry about the economy, chew on this: the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index of new orders is shrinking for the first time since July 2009. Moreover, the backlog of orders has now been contracting for two straight months, supplier deliveries are barely growing, and…
Read MoreHot Babies
The Friday File: Children conceived during heat waves have higher literacy rates, lower disability rates, higher incomes and more years of schooling than children conceived during normal temperatures. It’s probably because sexual activity declines in hot weather. However, the wealthy and better educated have access to air conditioning, can stay in hotels or else travel…
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