Archive for April 2012
Weak GDP
Q1 ‘12 GDP came in at a dismal 2.2%, not nearly fast enough to dent unemployment. The biggest problem, after adjusting for inflation, wages fell last year. The only reason consumer spending is up is because savings rates keep declining; to 3.9% in February. Worse, excluding inventory growth, GDP was just 1.6%. Add continuing declines…
Read MoreProm Bomb
The Friday File: Families with teens are expected to spend about $1,078 on prom festivities based on several surveys. In the Northeast, the average will be $2,000, in the South, $1,047 and in the West and Midwest, $744 and $696 respectively. Interestingly, expected spending is higher the poorer you are. Families earning between $20,000 and…
Read MoreGender Gap
During the first year of the Great Recession (1/08 – 1/09), men lost almost 3.3 million jobs while women lost nearly 1.2 million. Since then, women have lost another 680K jobs and men just 60K. This is because many men work in manufacturing and construction, industries that were hit hard and early, while women tend…
Read MoreBuying Votes
So far, front runner Mitt Romney has spent $124 million in the primaries and has received 4.1 million votes, for a cost of $30/vote. Gingrich spent $39 million or almost $18/vote. Santorum was the most efficient spending just $27 million, or a bit less than $10/vote. Next up is the general election. Assuming the winner…
Read MoreCell Saturation
The previously fast-growing US cell phone market is now fully saturated. Wireless carriers collectively lost 20,000 customers with long-term contracts (the most profitable segment) in Q1 ’12; the first decline ever. While this is partly due to holdouts that bought the latest iphone in Q4 ‘11, markets just don’t grow forever. This should lead to…
Read MoreMcDonald’s Vs Subway
Depending on how you count, Subway is far and away the largest chain in the US with about 23K stores. McDonalds is a distant second at about 14K, Starbucks is third with 11K, Burger King follows at about 7K then Wendy’s at almost 6K. However, by annual revenue, McDonald’s is way ahead with $31 billion,…
Read MoreA Really Costly Vacation!
The Friday File: Believe it or not, the former Comptroller of Dixon, IL is accused of embezzling $30 million (annual budget just $9 million) since ’06 to finance a lavish (you think?) lifestyle. Making things worse, the City spent about $150,000 on accountants and auditors during that period and the only reason she was caught…
Read MoreWhere’s My Credit?
This recovery is anemic because total (household and government) debt is high and falling! Consumer credit actually declined by 2.5% in ’11 and total debt fell from 203% of GDP to 202% in ‘11; about $160,000/working age person. At the end of the ’01 recession debt was $80,000, and at the end of the ’91…
Read MoreTackling Taxes
With tax reform in the air here are three principles economists want reform based on. 1) Broaden the base and lower rates. Lower marginal rates distort behavior less. 2) Tax consumption not income. Taxing income discourages savings, investment and work. 3) Tax what you don’t want because taxes reduce the supply of whatever is taxed.…
Read MoreWhere’s baby?
Teen births fell another 9% to just 34 births per 1,000 girls in ’10, and are now at the lowest rate since data collection began in ’40. Since ’91 teen births have fallen by 44%. Absent that fall, there would now be 3.4 million more babies. MS leads with 55 births per 1,000 teen girls,…
Read More