Month: January 2011

CONSUMPTION DRIVEN GDP

01/31/2011

While 3.2% GDP growth in Q4 is excellent it was driven entirely by consumption which makes up 70% of GDP. The other 30% of the economy fared poorly in Q4 essentially stagnating (a puny 0.2% annualized growth rate). So while…

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GOOD NEWS

01/28/2011

New home sales spiked 17.5% MoM in Dec, eclipsing the 3.5% median expectation. But, there’s always a but, the gain was led by a 70% jump in new home sales in the West. Every other region was flat. So all…

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DRY BULK

01/27/2011

The Baltic Dry Index measures the cost for shipping dry bulk. This price can fluctuate wildly because supply of large cargo vessels is tight & inelastic. It takes 2 years to build a new ship & excess ships can’t be…

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LOSING LONDON

01/26/2011

On the Data Front: December consumer spending surprised to the high side at 0.6% (consensus was 0.3%) and oil is down from its lofty heights on talk of increased supply coming out of Riyadh. Gold is also down based on…

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE?

01/26/2011

26 I think consumers felt better as ‘11 got underway. According to the latest Conference Board survey the index came in better than expected in Jan. rising to 60.6 from 54 in Dec. But, the Univ. of MI Consumer Confidence…

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Bond Market Message

01/25/2011

Bond markets are sending a strong message! That short term interest rates are higher in Canada than here is testament to the relative strength of their economy. The fact that their long rates are lower than ours suggests their long…

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GOOD NEWS jobless

01/24/2011

Initial jobless claims for the week of 1/15 unexpectedly improved dipping to 404k from the downwardly revised 441k the week prior. This should translate into a better payrolls report when the data are released on 2/4. Also, the architectural billings…

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Surged MoM

01/21/2011

Yes, building permits surged a pleasant 17% MoM in December. But consider that a 1-month wonder due to a builder rush to get applications in ahead of building code changes that were going into effect on 1/1/11 in NY, PA…

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Taxes and Rates

01/20/2011

Ever wonder how much federal tax you pay? The answer (with some assumptions) depends on 4 tax rates. 1st you pay the combined income and payroll tax on earnings. 2nd you pay the corporate tax while you invest your money.…

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Fed unleashes…

01/19/2011

The Fed sees the economy through the lens of a wealth effect stimulating consumer spending. And gains in the stock market have helped achieve that but only 20% of Americans own equity directly. But we all eat and most of…

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