Taper Tantrum
11/07/2013 | | econ70, Economic forecasting, economist on radio, economist on TV, eisenberg and economics, Eisenberg and housing economics, Eisenberg and public speaking, Elliot eisenberg, Federal Reserve Board, funniest economist, funny housing economist, Graphsandlaughs, graphsandlaughs and eisenberg, housing sales, Inflation rates, MLS, mortgage banking, Multiple listing service, politics and economics, Public speaking economist, tapering, UNemployment rates
For the Fed to taper their purchases of Treasuries and MBS, GDP growth needs to be above 2.5%, net new job growth needs to approach 200,000/month, the annual inflation rate should be nearing 2%, and the unemployment rate should be below 7.3%. These thresholds are still a ways off. Thus, the probability of a December taper is just 15%, but it is highly likely that tapering will commence by March.