For the Fed to taper their purchases of Treasuries and MBS, GDP growth needs to be above 2.5%, net new job growth needs to approach 200,000/month, the annual inflation rate should be nearing 2%, and the unemployment rate should be below 7.3%. These thresholds are still a ways off. Thus, the probability of a December taper is just 15%, but it is highly likely that tapering will commence by March.
Tag Archives: UNemployment rates
The Shrinking Work Weak
The August Employment Report showed the average work week for all employees on private non-farm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours. While seemingly uneventful, the decline equates to the loss of 325,000 jobs across the broad economy. The Report also noted that the unemployment rate for men is 8.9%, is 8% for women, 25.4% for teenagers, 8% for whites, 16.7% for blacks, 11.3% for Hispanics and 7.1% for Asians.