POWERFUL PREDICTORS

After eliminating recession indicators that don’t send reliable enough signals over their history, there remain 20. This group of indicators includes the Sahm rule, the inverted yield curve, consumer sentiment, etc. Currently, 45% of these indicators have been triggered. This is well up from 10% in 2022, and 25% as recently as 24H1. Critically, every time this percentage has exceeded 30%, a recession was already occurring or was about to.