MIGRATION MUDDLE
10/09/2025 |
Widely watched monthly net job growth figures have sunk 70% since 1/1/25. This could indicate the onset of a recession if population growth and concomitantly labor force growth is strong. However, it could also be the new normal if net migration is roughly zero and thus so too labor force growth due to new immigration policies. Nobody knows, including the Fed. Watch the unemployment rate and wage growth for clues.