DUTY DOLLARS

In 2018/2019, President Trump imposed tariffs of $380 billion on thousands of imported products. The results: reduce GDP by 0.2%, the capital stock by 0.1%, employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs, raise core-goods inflation by about 4% in the first year, zero thereafter, and increase direct tax collections by $250/household/year. Non-trivial but not large. The newly proposed tariffs, if fully implemented, are likely to have quadruple the impact.