CORE CAPEX

While April core capital expenditures, defined as nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose 0.3% M-o-M, March was revised down to -0.1% M-o-M. Moreover, Y-o-Y capex is now growing just 0.5% Y-o-Y, has been barely positive since 6/23, and inflation-adjusted has been consistently negative since 1/22. That said, historically recessions don’t occur unless Y-o-Y nominal capex turns consistently negative, which hasn’t yet happened. So far so good but pay close attention.