Trade Tempering

The January US trade deficit was $51.2 billion, down from $59.9 billion in December. Exports rose 0.9% to $207.3 billion; imports fell 2.6% to $258.5 billion. The deficit with China fell 14% to $33.22 billion, primarily because firms raced to get products into the US ahead of a threatened tariff increase that didn’t materialize. This will boost 19Q1 GDP growth to a still anemic 1.5%. 19Q2 growth should meaningfully improve.