Yield of Dreams
12/11/2013 | | Economic forecasting, Eisenberg and housing economics, Eisenberg and public speaking, Elliot eisenberg, Federal Reserve tapering, Graphsandlaughs, MLS, Monetary Policy, Multiple listing service, Public speaking economist, budget deal, december taper, econ70, economist on TV, economist on radio, eisenberg and economics, funniest economist, funny housing economist, graphsandlaughs and eisenberg, housing sales, mortgage banking, politics and economics
The recent budget deal which reduces fiscal drag, along with improving employment numbers, the likelihood of faster growth in 2014 and the fact that long-term rates have adjusted to the idea that tapering will soon start, makes me peg the probability of a December taper at 25%, up from zero last month. The Fed will couple any tapering announcement with a statement/policy reassuring markets that short-term rates will remain super-low.