Trade Truce

If the US-China trade war does not worsen and President Trump doesn’t increase tariffs on Chinese imports on 12/15/19, the trade war’s negative impact on GDP here and China should end by 12/31/20. The cumulative reduction in Chinese GDP is likely to be about 0.75% or about $105 billion, and about 0.55%, or $115 billion here in the US. That totals $220 billion, or the GDP of New Zealand.