Trade Trouble

The US September trade deficit was -$52.5 billion, down from -$55 billion in August. More importantly, imports fell 1.7% M-o-M and -0.8% Y-o-Y while exports declined 0.9% M-o-M and -0.4% Y-o-Y. Declining trade volumes are a clear sign of global slowing and rising tariffs. YTD the trade deficit is -$481.33 billion, up 5.4% Y-o-Y. At this rate, the widening deficit will clip a non-trivial 0.15% from our already lackluster GDP.