Trade Tariffs

Already announced trade tariffs should reduce GDP by 0.1% at peak impact in mid-2019. If widened to include all proposed tariffs including autos, a 10% tariff on $400 billion of Chinese goods and equivalent retaliation, the temporary maximum hit to GDP would be 0.5% by summer 2019. The worst-case scenario, of not a 10% but a 25% tariff on all Chinese imports with retaliation, temporarily depresses GDP 1.5% before lessening.