Tough Trade

YTD, the US trade deficit is $337.9 billion, a record high, and up $22 billion compared to January through July of 2017. The widening deficit is likely to reduce Q3GDP by almost a percentage point. The drivers of the widening deficit are slowing global growth, domestic fiscal stimulus leading to higher US interest rates which strengthens the dollar, and trade disputes, which weaken currencies and growth of US trading partners.