TARIFF TOTALS

US imports of goods total $3.7 trillion/year, 12.3% of GDP. Assuming a 10% across-the-board tariff and no behavioral changes, somewhat unrealistic, this would lead to $370 billion/year in tariffs. Assuming they are all passed on to consumers through higher prices, this would result in a one-time inflation hike of 1.2 percentage points, driving inflation from 2.5% to a temporary peak of 3.7% then down again. Not great, but hardly catastrophic.