TARIFF TAX

Imports are 11% of GDP, and GDP is $30 trillion, making imports $3.3 trillion. As it now stands, the average tariff on imports is 24%. That results in $792 billion in tariffs. But there will of course be behavioral changes reducing imports. Import price elasticities suggest a reduction of 1/3, getting us to $528 billion, a tax hike of 1.76% of GDP, or $1,550/person! A recession is increasingly likely.