With unemployment at 11.8%, GDP growth barely positive, inflation at a microscopic 0.7% and the ECB balance sheet a trillion euro smaller than it was in 7/12, Mario Draghi will finally engage in stimulative monetary policy. While buying sovereign bonds won’t happen, negative interest rates, purchases of bank loans and long-term loans to banks at low rates are likely. These steps will, at minimum, weaken the euro and boost exports.
Tag Archives: Euro
Daring Draghi
Last week the ECB, finally, agreed to make unlimited purchases of Spanish and Italian short-term bonds if the countries ask for help and agree to make “changes” to their economies. While this will buy time for politicians, it does nothing to solve the deep structural problems including the persistently low productivity of the Southern European countries that has been exacerbated by joining the eurozone. This saga ain’t over.
Euroland, no Disneyland
To keep Spain and Italy in the euro, the ECB must buy Italian and Spanish bonds, as nobody else will. And, it can only do so if Merkel allows it. Separately, there’s the possibility that the German Constitutional Court will prohibit Germany from contributing to the European bailout fund. Assuming Germany green-lights everything, Italy may still need a bailout, as growth is dismal and debt-to-GDP is already excessive at 120%.
Sluggish Economy
The IMF sees global growth in ’12 slowing to 3.25% from 4% in ’11. It’s because the 17 nation Euro-zone will contract by 0.5% and China’s growth will slow from 9% to 8.2%. Growth here is expected to be 2%; better than ’11 but not enough to really dent unemployment. By suggesting, earlier today, that it will keep interest rates where they are till late ’14, the Fed has admitted that it too expects sluggish growth.
Europeans in Denial
Euro leaders continue to deny the debt crisis they face. Rather than boosting the size of the Euro Stability Fund, which would give investors in Italian and Spanish bonds confidence, they ban short selling for a few weeks, get the ECB to buy 96 billion of Euro-zone debt, and talk about each country passing a balanced budget amendment! The only question; which of these 3 dreadful ideas is the worst.
Moral Hazard
Ideally Greece would leave the Euro, default on its debts, and get on with its economic existence. But, leaving the Euro would be a disaster for the Euro zone. So the Europeans won’t let it happen. Neither will the Chinese as they do not want the US Dollar to be the only reserve currency. Since the Greeks know this they have no incentive to financially behave because they know they will get bailout out.