Despite the euro zone being in recession, the euro is dramatically rising against the US dollar, from $1.20/euro in July to $1.36 today. Why, because massive European Central Bank (ECB) action prevented Spain from collapsing, and the ECB is fast becoming an inflation hawk and has thus started to shrink its balance sheet, until, of course, the southern European countries go into recession and the ECB again loosens monetary policy.
Tag Archives: Spain
Daring Draghi
Last week the ECB, finally, agreed to make unlimited purchases of Spanish and Italian short-term bonds if the countries ask for help and agree to make “changes” to their economies. While this will buy time for politicians, it does nothing to solve the deep structural problems including the persistently low productivity of the Southern European countries that has been exacerbated by joining the eurozone. This saga ain’t over.
Euroland, no Disneyland
To keep Spain and Italy in the euro, the ECB must buy Italian and Spanish bonds, as nobody else will. And, it can only do so if Merkel allows it. Separately, there’s the possibility that the German Constitutional Court will prohibit Germany from contributing to the European bailout fund. Assuming Germany green-lights everything, Italy may still need a bailout, as growth is dismal and debt-to-GDP is already excessive at 120%.
Unfunded Liabilities
Advanced economies with aging populations have made lavish spending promises that are unafforadable absent huge tax increases. In Canada the “unfunded” amount is 7 times GDP. In Korea it is 6.8, in Spain it is 6.5, here in the USA it’s 5, in Australia it’s 4.8, in the UK 3.3, in Germany 2.8. France 2.7, in Italy 1.7 and Japan 1.6 times GDP. These huge burdens will require very unpleasant policy adjustments.
Borrowing and Bail
Borrowing costs for Portugal, Ireland and Greece have hit highs amid concern that Europe will not take action to dispel fears of sovereign defaults. Long term rates for Spain came close to setting a record and Italy’s cost rose above 5% for the first time since 11/08. Portugal was forced to pay a much higher premium in an auction on Wed. Greece and Ireland, which are both being bailed out by the EU-IMF have seen dramatic rises too.