Consumer borrowing rose by $19.6 billion last month, substantially more than the $12.5 billion forecast by economists (big surprise there) and up from $10.9 billion in May. Non-revolving debt, which includes car loans, student loans and mobile homes loans increased by $13 billion – $9.2 billion excluding government guaranteed student loans. Credit card debt, which has been barely growing for years, jumped by $6.6 billion, the most in 12 months!
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Bang Up Banks
While rising long-term interest rates will hurt banks by reducing the value of their bond portfolios, that will be a one-time hit and banks are exceptionally well capitalized and will easily withstand the losses. Conversely, a widening spread between short-term rates and long-term rates will boost bank profits on new loans as banks generally borrow short-term money from depositors and lend long-term to borrowers, pocketing the difference.
More Mediocrity
The good: the index of leading economic indicators rose, as did retail sales, consumer sentiment, and housing permits. The bad: Europe is now officially in recession, first-time unemployment claims rose, manufacturing activity declined, inflation as measured four different ways is non-existent, housing starts weakened, and industrial production and capacity utilization both fell more than expected. Data like this is why talk of tapering QE3 before January 2014 is exceptionally unlikely.
Unintented Consequences
Forcing Congress to obtain health insurance through exchanges is bad policy. Because they get excellent coverage, Congress would push for top-flight exchange healthcare. This would encourage employers to drop their plans because their employees could get great congressional quality subsidized coverage. And, that would raise the cost of the subsidy! Worse, if exchange plans are top-notch, people will have less of an incentive to work to get superior employer coverage.
Gassing Up
Retail sales jumped 0.1% in April and while not great, it beats the 0.5% decline in March! Moreover, it shows that consumers are spending despite the sequester and the payroll tax increase. And a key reason was the huge 3.5% decline in gasoline prices, the largest monthly drop in a decade. If sustained for a year, lower gas prices would save consumers $15 billion/year and boost GDP by 0.1% singlehandedly.
Driving Sales
Last week automakers reported sales of 15.3 million, up from a low of 9.0 million in February 2009. The rise is due in part to ultra-low interest rates, but also to both a rapidly aging fleet and longer loan terms. The average age of a car is now 11.2 years, up from 8.4 in 1995, while the average term of a new car loan is 65 months.
Punching Ahead
The Friday File: In an attempt to reduce concussions, the International Boxing Association will prohibit the wearing of headgear in competition! Absent helmets, it’s hoped boxers will refrain from using their heads as weapons, will have improved peripheral vision, and will not hit as hard as they will be unprotected when counterattacked. Remember, helmets offer no protection against blows to the head that cause the head to rotate.