While most of the economic data released last week was hum drum, the two biggest data points surprised to the upside. Q3 GDP came in at 2.8%, when all genius economists expected 2%, and employment growth was a robust 204,000, not the 120,000 expected. While two surprises aren’t enough to make me an economic Pollyanna, they matter. And when upside surprises begin to regularly outweigh downside ones, it’s good news.
Tag Archives: Economic data
More Mediocrity
The good: the index of leading economic indicators rose, as did retail sales, consumer sentiment, and housing permits. The bad: Europe is now officially in recession, first-time unemployment claims rose, manufacturing activity declined, inflation as measured four different ways is non-existent, housing starts weakened, and industrial production and capacity utilization both fell more than expected. Data like this is why talk of tapering QE3 before January 2014 is exceptionally unlikely.