Posts Tagged ‘CPI’
Insignificant Inflation
Despite fears of inflation, it’s currently benign no matter how measured. The CPI is up 2.1% year-over-year while the core CPI (which removes food and energy) is up just 1.9%. The PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is up 1.6% Y-o-Y with the core up 1.5%. Economy wide inflation is at 1.6% Y-o-Y, and average…
Read MoreAlternative Approaches
Inflation as measured by the CPI is 2.1%, as measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is 1.6%, below the Fed’s 2% target. Importantly, the Fed uses the PCE to monitor inflation. Historically, the PCE is 0.5% lower than the CPI, as is the case now. The reason; the PCE accounts for changes in consumer buying…
Read MoreInvisible Inflation
While the economy is improving, inflation is MIA. Wages adjusted for inflation were up just 0.3% in 2012 after falling 1% in 2011. Meanwhile, the CPI and core CPI (excluding food and energy) were up 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in 2012. Similarly, the producer price index (PPI) and core PPI were up just 1.3% and…
Read MoreLaboring On
Last Friday’s mediocre employment report gives the Fed (meeting this week) ample reason to continue buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at the rate of about $80 billion/month for the foreseeable future. As for the employment report, average hourly earnings rose only 1.7% over the past 12 months, while the CPI increased 2.2%! The workweek remained…
Read MoreAgricultural Economics
Despite crippling drought, US food prices will rise little as only 15% of each food dollar is attributable to farm products. Thus, even a 100% rise in corn prices would lift the CPI by 1.5%. And if this drought is as bad as 1988, which cost $80 billion, GDP will fall by just 0.50%. In…
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