Satisfactory Slog

June’s strong 224,000 net new jobs were a huge relief after May’s weak showing and tariff traumas. That said, YTD job growth is 171,000/month, over the last 12 months it’s 192,000/month, in CY2018 it was 223,000/month; we’re slowing. Wage growth is steady at 3.1% Y-o-Y; no inflationary concerns! A half-point cut by the Fed later this month is history. A quarter-point cut is likely, primarily due to the strengthening dollar.