Repeated Revisions

Repeated Revisions Through November, 10 of 11 monthly employment reports have been revised down. In CY2008, a recession year, 11 were downwardly revised. Conversely in CY2021, a boom year, 11 were revised up. Two things are occurring. A strengthening economy makes upward revisions more likely, for a weakening economy, it’s the reverse. Moreover, data quality is worsening as survey response rates decline, thus standard errors are rising, and revisions are larger.