Recession Ratings

Leading economic indicators and manufacturing activity are signaling recession, labor markets and consumer spending aren’t. However, the unemployment rate is a coincident/lagging indicator. Moreover, the Bloomberg recession indicator and the NY Fed curve-based recession model are at 55% and 60%, respectively. Every time either model rises above 40% a recession has followed since 1985, and for the NY Fed model it’s been accurate seven out of eight times since 1960.