Recession Rate

Following the most recent 75bps rate hike by the Fed, the NY Fed’s economic model pegs the chances of a recession, or a hard-landing, defined as one quarter in which Y-o-Y GDP growth is negative between now and the end of 2024 at 80%. The probability of continued uninterrupted growth over the same 10 quarters is 10% and the probably of a very mild contraction is also 10%.