Quality Quarter

With April durable goods sales surprisingly strong, retail sales edging up, trade data looking slightly better, housing strengthening, and industrial production increasing — despite continued weakness in agriculture, energy and export-oriented manufacturing — Q2 GDP should be 3%, up sharply from Q1’s 0.5%, which will be revised up. That said, January-June GDP growth will still average, at most, 2%; below the average growth rate since the end of the recession.