Productivity Predicament

Through 20Q3, GDP is down 3.5% from 19Q4. Assuming GDP grows at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 3.3% in 20Q4, which shouldn’t be tough, GDP will be just 2.7% shy of where it was pre-pandemic. But, by 12/31/20, total nonfarm employment will probably be down by 9.9 million persons or 6.4%. This huge discrepancy is because this is a services-dominated recession, and therefore, productivity and wages are generally low.