POOR PERFORMANCE

CY2025 looks to grow meekly for many reasons. First, fiscal policy is contractionary primarily due to required repayment of student loans, but also the likely removal of green energy tax credits. Second, tariffs are increasing uncertainty which reduces capex. Third, declining immigration will reduce employment and thus GDP growth. Lastly, monetary policy is also contractionary with rates too high. Collectively, these impacts probably slice one percentage point off GDP growth.