Payrolls & Exports
02/27/2014 | | econ70, Economic forecasting, economist on radio, economist on TV, eisenberg and economics, Eisenberg and housing economics, Eisenberg and public speaking, Elliot eisenberg, funniest economist, funny housing economist, Graphsandlaughs, graphsandlaughs and eisenberg, housing sales, MLS, mortgage banking, Multiple listing service, politics and economics, Public speaking economist
In 2011, monthly payroll growth averaged 174,000 in 2012 it averaged 186,000 and 194,000 last year. This year I expect employment to be at least as strong as in 2013. Moreover, I’m only mildly concerned about weakness in emerging markets because US exports to all developing economies equal 4.5% of GDP. Thus, if exports to those nations shrink by 20%, that’s a 0.9% hit to GDP; tough but survivable.