Payroll Performance

U.S. payrolls grew a net 199,000 in November, 152,000 after accounting for previously striking workers. 199,000 is the fourth weakest number since 1/21, all of which have occurred since 6/23. Wage growth ticked up slightly despite the labor market’s continued softening, thus the Fed will hold on 12/23/23. Job growth is increasingly concentrated, with 148,000 net jobs in education/healthcare and government. With continued luck we narrowly avoid recession.