Inversion Information
05/04/2023 |
The Fed’s currently preferred bond market signal is not the traditional spread between the 2-yr Treasury rate and the 10-year rate, it’s the near term forward spread. That is the spread between the rate that a three-month Treasury bill is expected to yield 18 months from now, versus the current yield on a three month-Treasury bill. And regrettably that rate is as inverted as it has ever been at 190bps.