Interim Inflation

While Producer Price Inflation is rising, since 1991 its correlation with core CPI is just 15%. Moreover, unemployment is high and global inflation is weak. Finally, while we are experiencing supply constraints, input prices have risen before. Recall that in 6/08 oil was $138/bbl, and as recently as 6/14 $111/bbl, yet since 1/1/94 core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure has never exceeded 2.55%/annum! Temporary inflation, probably, sustained inflation, no!