Inflation Impulse

While headline CPI inflation fell from 9.1% Y-o-Y to 8.7% and monthly headline inflation fell from a shockingly high 1.3% in June to 0% in July, contain your enthusiasm. This only suggests inflation has peaked. Y-o-Y core inflation remains at 5.9% and Y-o-Y services inflation, which includes rents, rose from 6.2% to 6.3%. This is good, but we need several months of declines before the Fed starts changing its tune.