Incremental Inflation

CPI rose 3.2% Y-o-Y in October, down from 3.7% in August and September, and barely above the 3.1% June low, its lowest level since 3/21. CPI peaked at 9% Y-o-Y in 6/22. More importantly, core CPI rose 4% Y-o-Y, its lowest level since 8/21 and is down from a 9/21 peak of 6.6%. October was core CPI’s 12th decline in 13 months. Another Fed rate hike is almost inconceivable.