Halfhearted Housing

Seasonally-adjusted September housing starts totaled a soft 1.201 million. But Y-o-Y, starts rose 3.7% and YTD starts are up 6.4%, which is OK. Beating CY2017 numbers will be very hard as 17Q4 starts ended strong. That said, while multifamily is flatlining, attention should be focused primarily on single-family. It looks poised to continue rising, albeit s-l-o-w-l-y, given headwinds of higher prices, rising rates and a construction labor shortage.