Growing GDP

20Q3 GDP growth estimates currently range from 10% to 25%. Importantly, GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). If 20Q3 comes in at a SAAR of 15% (my best estimate) that’s equal to a quarterly rise of 3.6%. A SAAR of 25% means a quarterly rise of 5.7%. If the former, GDP would be 7.5% lower than on 12/31/19, if the latter, the hole would be 5.5%.