Good Growth

The U.S. economy grew 2.9% in 22Q4, down slightly from 3.2% in 22Q3. In 2022, GDP grew 1%, a pleasant surprise given negative growth in 22H1. However, stripping out inventory changes, net trade, and government spending to get at the underlying sustainable growth trend, GDP grew an anemic 0.2% in 22Q4. The labor market remains surprisingly strong, but rate hikes will continue to make themselves increasingly felt as 2023 progresses.