Fine Forecasting

While forecasts are generally worth less than the paper they are printed on, if you want to try forecasting, read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow. A close second is Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. And for those who are gluttons, read Scott Armstrong’s Long-Range Forecasting. Good luck, you’ll need it! My forecast is that your forecasts will, like mine, generally be wrong!