Fed Forecasting

Dating back to 2012, the Fed has correctly predicted the fed funds rate, a rate they literally control, 37% of the time, core inflation 29% of the time, unemployment 24%, and Real GDP growth 17%. Moreover, the Fed is consistently biased towards faster growth and higher rates than what comes to pass. Only 7% of the time was the Fed dovish. Thus, treat Fed inflation/growth/rate forecasts with appropriate skepticism.