Divergent Data

23Q2 GDP growth at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.4% gives the feeling that a recession is not near. However, in 23Q2 the Conference Board’s index of coincident economic indicators was at a 0.8% annual rate, while the index of leading economic indicators contracted at a 9.8% annual rate. The concern is that divergences this large have occurred before every recession dating back to 1970.