Decelerating Dwellings

Builder confidence is at its lowest level since 8/16, housing starts peaked in 1/18, and building permits in 3/18. As for existing housing, sales peaked in 11/17, pending sales peaked in 4/16, prices are rising noticeably slower, inventories are rising, and affordability is near a decade low. But job growth remains strong, incomes are up, and household formation is solid. Housing won’t cause the next recession. It’ll be something else.